Thanks Spyros for another insightful post. Do the hikes in steel and aluminum tariffs fall in the realm of the escalation that you have stressed in the piece?
Thanks Priyanka. Unfortunately the answer is both yes and no. Yes, because it is an escalation from the US side even as US-EU negotiations continue. No, because the EU at least for now, has chosen not to retaliate although they are ready to do so. Looking through all this noise the issue for me is that it won’t be easy for US-EU to come to terms.
This is a well-argued walk through the ECB's increasingly narrow path. Between lagging German investment, a strengthening euro, and Trump’s tariff unpredictability, the downside risks to the eurozone economy—and to the ECB’s terminal rate—are real. Really solid analysis!
Thanks Spyros for another insightful post. Do the hikes in steel and aluminum tariffs fall in the realm of the escalation that you have stressed in the piece?
Thanks Priyanka. Unfortunately the answer is both yes and no. Yes, because it is an escalation from the US side even as US-EU negotiations continue. No, because the EU at least for now, has chosen not to retaliate although they are ready to do so. Looking through all this noise the issue for me is that it won’t be easy for US-EU to come to terms.
Thanks Spyros
This is a well-argued walk through the ECB's increasingly narrow path. Between lagging German investment, a strengthening euro, and Trump’s tariff unpredictability, the downside risks to the eurozone economy—and to the ECB’s terminal rate—are real. Really solid analysis!
Thank you very much for your feedback!